FORECAST FOR 2017.

Posted 5/1/17.

This will be an interesting year.
Weak La Niña over the Summer (Jan-Feb) should bring above avg rainfall.MUCH COOLER summer over all.
their should be still 5 days over 30c with one day getting to near 35c.

...

Winter should be much cooler than 2016 with snow on the ground at lest 2 times.

Spring should be very windy and likely to be dry.

By Christmas and the 2017-2018 summer we should be back to normal Canterbury like Summer weather.

Rainfall for 2017 should be about normal over all at 616mm.

Air temp will be cooler over all at 11.5c normal is 11.78c.

Their should be less sunshine in 2017 also.

We expext 55 air FROSTS in 2017.

This forecast will be kept on this site so we can see how we go.

  1. What weather do we expect to get this November 2016.
  2. Only being 2 YEARS PAST solar MAX we would expect air temps to still be WARMER than normal.
    SO we are looking at a warmer November by 0.25c to 0.50c.
    Sunshine should be normal.......
    Rainfall should be 30% less than normal= 35mm.
    We should get more NorthEAST winds than normal with low cloud to start 30% of the days in November

22/10/16.
We had a air frost last night.
So this year we had 6 months of FROST being recorded.
7 months is the most and the avg being 6.
So over all in the socalled WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD we still get the avg number of FROST months in a year.

2/10/16

What weather do we expect to get this October.

Only being 2 YEARS PAST solar MAX we would expect air temps to still be warmer than normal.
SO we are looking at a warmer October by 0.5c to 0.75c.
Sunshine should be normal....
Rainfall should be 20% less than normal.
We should get more EAST winds than normal with low cloud to start 30% of the days in October.

 posted on the 1/1/16

What will 2016 bring in the way of weather.
WITH THE sun AT RECORD HOT TEMPS WE WOULD EXPECT that northwest winds will be at near to record heat.

With the El Niño now gradually dissipating normal rainfall may start by May with a above avg winter more than likely.

Chance of SNOW this winter.

Rainfall for the year should still be below normal over all at about 550mm (460.4mm last year 2015)

After an El Niño we should get a La Niña by next Christmas which brings cooler but  wetter summers.

The lakes down south should stat to dry up. Power cuts in winter 2017 at 30% chance.

So avg air temp for 2016 should be about 12.3c  up 0.4c on 2015.

Drought should be over by May 2016.

I will keep a copy of this on my web sites here

 5/11/15

UPDATE IT IS A RECORD FOR THE AIRPORT.

 

If you thought it was particularly cold and frosty in Canterbury first thing this morning, you were right.

Christchurch has had its coldest November temperature in more than 60 years, with a minimum of -2.8 degrees Celsius recorded at the airport.

Minimums around the city hovered between 0°C and -1°C.

MetService forecaster Georgina Griffiths said it might have been the coldest on record but it wasn't the latest frost in the city.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/73704110/christchurchs-coldest-november-temperature-in-more-than-60-years

 Temperature records broken around the country.


This month’s cold snap has broken a swathe of temperature records around the country.

NIWA data shows at more than 30 weather stations from Cape Reinga in the north to Stewart Island, had daily maximum temperature recordings that were either the lowest ever recorded, or at least in the top four coldest for July.

At South West Cape, the southernmost point on Stewart Island the temperature reached just 5.2°C on July 6.  This was the third lowest for July for this location since records began in 1991.

At the opposite end of the country at Cape Reinga the temperature was a comparably balmy 10.8°C on July 10, but this was the lowest daily maximum July temperature there since 1971.

Lowest daily maximum temperatures were also recorded at Kaitaia, Port Taharoa, Waione and Ngawi.

Suspicions that the early mornings for the first half of July have been especially chilly have also been confirmed at several locations.

In particular Northlanders have been feeling the cold with Kaitaia, Kerikeri and Warkworth all recording the lowest July temperature on record. Kaitaia’s lowest daily minimum was 0°C on July 11, Kerikeri’s -0.7°C on July 12 and Warkworth’s -2.3°C also on July 12.

Te Kuiti plummeted to -4.9°C overnight on July 13, marking it as the coldest July temperature for the town since records began in 1959.  In fact, Te Kuiti has observed its two-lowest July temperatures on record over the past three days: -4.5°C was recorded on July 11 which is its second-lowest July temperature.

And in Greymouth -2.6°C on July 9 put it in the record books as the coldest July temperature there since records begin in 1947.

NIWA climate scientist Gregor Macara said the cold weather was caused by a cold southerly flow that brought icy showers and snow last week, followed by a high pressure system bringing clear skies and little wind to most of the country.

“Clouds act like a blanket at night and trap heat over the Earth’s surface, whereas clear skies enable enhanced night-time cooling as this heat escapes the atmosphere. This process has contributed to the severe frosts observed lately,” he said.

The current list of July 2015 record breakers is:

Lowest Daily Maximum Temperature Extremes







LOCATION

Daily Tmax (°C)

Date

Year records began

Ranking

Cape Reinga

10.8

10th

1971

Lowest

Kaitaia

9.6

10th

1971

Lowest

Dargaville

9.4

9th

1951

2nd-lowest

Mokohinau

10.0

10th

1994

Equal lowest

Warkworth

9.8

9th

1966

4th-lowest

Whangaparaoa

9.9

10th

1982

Equal 2nd-lowest

Whitianga

9.8

9th

1971

2nd-lowest

Paeroa

8.8

9th

1971

4th-lowest

Te Puke

8.6

8th

1973

4th-lowest

Whakatane

9.3

8th

1975

Equal 4th-lowest

Rotorua

7.1

8th

1972

Equal 3rd-lowest

Motu

3.8

8th

1990

3rd-lowest

Port Taharoa

9.0

8th

1974

Lowest

Te Kuiti

6.3

9th

1959

2nd-lowest

Turangi

5.7

9th

1968

4th-lowest

Takapau Plains

3.8

9th

1972

2nd-lowest

Dannevirke

4.0

9th

1951

2nd-lowest

Waione

4.9

9th

1993

Lowest

Castlepoint

6.5

8th

1972

3rd-lowest

Ngawi

6.9

8th

1972

Lowest

Hicks Bay

8.1

8th

1972

Equal lowest

Gisborne

6.9

9th

1940

3rd-lowest

Napier

7.5

9th

1940

4th-lowest

Hastings

6.6

9th

1972

2nd-lowest

Wairoa

7.6

8th

1972

2nd-lowest

Mahia

7.4

9th

1990

Equal 2nd-lowest

Ohakune

2.2

9th

1972

Equal 3rd-lowest

Haast

6.1

6th

1949

4th-lowest

Secretary Island

5.9

6th

1989

3rd-lowest

Le Bons Bay

3.4

8th

1984

2nd-lowest

South West Cape

5.2

6th

1991

3rd-lowest

 

The Mackenzie Country’s big freeze - June 2015

Gregor Macara – Climate Scientist, NIWA Wellington

As we entered the second half of June 2015 the perfect sequence of weather conditions occurred which enabled Mackenzie Basin temperatures to plummet to record and near-record lows. This weather sequence can be broken down into three phases, with each phase making an important contribution to the resulting extremely low temperatures:
Phase One: Heavy snowfall. On 18 and 19 June, heavy snow fell throughout the South Island. This was a warm-advection snowfall event, whereby moisture-laden warm air arriving from the northwest was undercut by much cooler air from the south, enabling prolonged heavy snowfall to relatively low elevations. Snow depths varied throughout the Mackenzie Country, with reports of at least 10 cm in southern parts and up to 50 cm or more in remaining areas.
Phase Two: Cold-air injection. On 21 June, the broad area of low pressure which brought the heavy snow drew away to the east of the South Island. This established a southerly airflow over the South Island which injected even colder air than that which contributed to the heavy snowfall. Snow flurries were reported to near sea-level in eastern parts of the South Island, and while little or no new snow was reported in the Mackenzie Country, this colder air did manage to penetrate into the inland basins. The southerly flow persisted to 22 June, but eased with the approach of a high pressure system.
Phase Three: High pressure system. On 22 June skies gradually cleared over the South Island with the arrival of a strong high pressure system (anticyclone). Cold air from the southerly outbreak lingered, and effectively became trapped in the inland basins by the anticyclone. The combination of clear skies and cold air saw temperatures fall rapidly: parts of Mackenzie Country were already below -10°C by 7 pm on 22 June.
The anticyclone became established over the South Island on 22 June and remained in place for around four days. Anticyclones are typically associated with pleasant weather however in this case it contributed to decidedly unpleasant conditions in the Mackenzie Country. Clear skies meant that any heat from the sun was lost rapidly at night (as opposed to the presence of cloud cover, which acts like a blanket and traps heat in the atmosphere). As it was near winter solstice this overnight cooling was prolonged by the length of time between sunset and sunrise. Light winds meant that the cold air remained undisturbed in inland parts. Cold air has a higher density than warm air, so the lack of wind enabled this cold air to pool in the basins, resulting in an inversion (i.e. temperature increases with increasing elevation). Finally, snow cover on the ground reflects a considerable proportion of the sun’s energy, which would otherwise contribute to an increase in air temperature.
Notably, a very similar sequence of weather events was reported in July 1903, when Ranfurly observed New Zealand’s lowest temperature on record (-25.6°C on 17 July 1903). In this case, heavy snowfall occurred throughout the South Island on 10 July 1903, which was followed by an anticyclone which persisted for at least seven days.

For further information, please contact:
Mr Chris Brandolino
NIWA Forecaster – NIWA National Climate Centre
Tel. 09 375 6335, Mobile (027) 886 0014
For climate data enquiries, please contact:
Ms Petra Chappell
Climate Scientist, NIWA Auckland
Tel. 09 375 2052

 

Some Climatology on May.

Coldest  night temp -6.4c=2015
  Warmest  night temp 13.9c=1999.
Coldest   Day max temp 4.3c=1990
  Warmest  Day time max 27.3c=1990.
Coldest avg month air temp 6.98c=1992.
Warmest avg month temp for May  is 12.1c=1997.

 

10/4/15

Bishopdale Winter Forecast.

With Ground temps being so warm we are expecting much more cloud than normal thou to June.
If ground temps stay warm it should be a cloudy warm winter on avg.
Night temp to be at less 3c warmer than normal and day temps to be 1.4c cooler than normal....
Giving and overall warmer winter by 1.6c.

The thing that could change this is if we get SNOW .
What this will do is cool the ground temps down.
when the ground temps get down to normal this will give us avg to above avg sunshine.

Rainfall should be near normal. But we need above normal rainfall of at less 25% above normal for the next 5 months to do away with the DROUGHT.

Mark russell

 

Why is it colder in winter than in summer?.
The Sun it self doesnt get colder in winter though it does feels colder.(see Note 2)

One is that their less day time or sunshine, shorter day time hours.
so the ground and seas dont get a chance to warm up.

...

 Note 2.
With the Sun low in the sky in winter the heat in the Sun RAYS gos though more atmosphere before for hitting the ground or sea than it does in summer. Meaning the more atmosphere the Suns rays go though the less heat that will get to sea level.

Thats why its so hot at the equator because the Suns is right over head and because of this has less atmosphere for the Suns rays to pass though

Mark Russell.

 

Some Climatology on Februarys.

Coldest February night temp 0.5c 1992.
Warmest February night temp 23c 1972.
Coldest February Day max temp 12.9c in 2009....
Warmest February Day time max 41.6c in 1972.
Coldest avg month air temp for Feb 15.40c in 2003.
Warmest avg month temp for Feb is 19.5c in 1998.

 .....................October A.v.g DAY TIME air temp by wind direction........
Normal East wind=15.5c we got in 2014 14.8c much colder.than normal.
" " Northeast=16.79c " " " " 16.06c much colder than normal.
" " North wind=19.93c " " " " 19.53c cooler than normal.
" " Northwest =21.42c " " " " 19.78c very much colder....
" " West wind=16.28c " " ' " 21.5c Very much warmer.
" " Southwest=16.28c " " " " 15.9c Much colder than normal.
" " South wind=14.34c" " " " 13.93c Cooler than normal.

 

But where do we find the greatest abundance of life on land? Follow the equator around the globe – the Amazon, the Congo, Kenya, Indonesia and New Guinea – all places where it is warm and wet.

And where is life such a struggle that few species live there? Go towards the poles – Siberia and the cold deserts of Antarctica and Greenland.

Where do most tourists go in winter? Few go to Alaska or Iceland – most head towards the warmth of the Mediterranean, the Caribbean, the Black Sea and Bali.

Which season is most welcomed? It is not the first frost, nor the first snowstorm, but the first cherry blossoms, the first robins, and the welcome green shoots of new spring pasture.

Land life multiplies in summer – many mammals hibernate or die in winter.

Every nurseryman knows that plants grow best in a warm greenhouse with added carbon dioxide. Global warmth speeds up the life-supporting water and carbon cycles – warming oceans expel the gases of life (carbon dioxide and water vapour) producing more clouds, more precipitation and more plant growth.

This is why the warm eras of the past are remembered as periods of plenty – the cold eras are times of hunger, migrations and war.

Life on Earth has never been threatened by greenhouse warming. It is the sudden plunge into an ice age that we need to fear.

Green alarmists should venture from their cosy offices and coffee shops and celebrate the welcome warmth of our global greenhouse while it lasts.

Warmth is good.

Viv Forbes,
Rosewood    Qld   Australia
carbon-sense.com

 12/7/14

July 2014 weather so far has been warmer than normal at + 0.75c. than the avg for July.

Also been very dry and cloudy.
The cloud has give record warm night temp.

...

Their has been more cloudy night this year thn normal making it a very warm year sofar.

We are looking at near record warm year this year.
Once the cloudy nights clear it will cool down again.

 I may of made a scientific discovery as to how the solar cycle effects on climate.

Even though we know the Sun gets hotter as it heads to Solar Max their is not an up ward trend line in Earths avg air temp as the Sun heads to Solar max.
So what stops the Earth getting hotter?
If their no trend line in temp their has to be a trend line some where but where?.

...

I THINK I have the answer. Well it answers most of the questions.
Iv been working on this for 10 years.

If im right it will be an very significant breakthrough which will change the way climate change studied.

Heres the questions.......
Where is the climate dataset that shows the ~11-year sunspot/magnetism/cosmic rays/solar wind cycle?

There is some unknown amplification mechanism that makes the effects “about 5 to 7 times larger than just those associated with the TSI variations” … however, I’m not seeing it. So where can we find this mystery ~11-year cycle?
I have the answer but I dont know how to Write it up in a scientific manner.

I will have ago in my own words and post here some time soon.

Will post here first before I post on the scientific sites that I am involved with.

Mark Russell.
Bishopdale Weather.

 AVG Wind temp for May.2014

.......................2014.....Normal

East avg=====15.4c....14.0c

Northesst. avg=13.0c....14.1c

North avg=====18.8c...18.3c

Northwest avg.=20.4c....21.3c

West avg==..==11.9c...13.3c

Southwest avg=12.3c....12.7c

South avg ====NA

Southeast avg=13.2c....13.9c


So what we can see from this is the the 

East and North were warmer than normal.

The Northeast and Northwest and West 

and Southwest and Southeast winds 

were cool than normal.


So why did we get a warmer than normal

May for 2014.??.

It was because we had more cloudy nights

and more Northwest wind days than normal.

Normal number of Northwest winds for

May is 5 we thad 9 days.

 3/5/14

How low can the sun's brightness go before we freeze.??

Over the last 3 years the sun's brightness has got lower.
IE for April
2012=57.4...
2013=51.9
2014=50.2
The way this works is the brighter the sun the warmer it is because the heat from the Sun is in it light.( a brighter is hotter).

Once we get as low as 49 In April we see very cold weather new cold records.
This April was only warm because of al the low cloud we had.
Cloud traps in heat or in other word stop heat going into space.

6/3/14

I don't get the one in a century event. claim as we got lest rain than last Junes rain storm.

If we go back to 1975 (39 years ago) we had two rain storms.
 Storm number 1= Cyclone Allison on March 13, 1975 gave us 200mm of rain in 24 hours.
 Storm number 2= On August 17-20th, 1975 we got 200mm in 48 hours

So it must be the flooding that's the one in a century event ??.

Also  on the night of April 16th 1974 we had 221mm of rain.
And in April 17th 1925 218mm fell in 24 hours.
Copy from the press 20/8/75.

In 1977 the head line was on Monday the 4th July "HUNDREDS EVACUATED"
It said worst storm since the Wahine storm.
"Water was up to the windowsills in Clarendon Terrace.
The 1977 flood was called the worst flood since 1974. so SO WHERE DOES 1975 FIT IN.
1977 was worst than 1975.

from the press.

 A NOTE ON THE AVG temperature THIS YEAR.

Christchurch New Zealand

THE NORTHWEST WIND IS NORMALLY 8C ABOVE THE AVG SO THE MORE OF THESE WINDS WE GET THE WARMER IT WILL BE.
...
In the year 2012 we had 47 Northwest days. We had a avg air temp for the year of 11.3c.
2013 We had 69 Northwest days (22 more hot wind days) and we ended up with an avg air temp of 11.9c.(Chch airport)

It was the number of Northwest days that made 2013 warmer than normal NOT BECAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING.

In 2013 we had 97 days with a wind from the South.
In 2012 we had 110 days with a South wind.
So here again 2013 was warmer also because we had less South winds.

In 2013 we had 118 days with an east wind.
In 2012 we had 131 days

15/11/13

 The Land Sea index is at -0.5 which mean that when theirs a Northeast wind their will always be cloud at times over Christchurch.

Once the reading gets to 0 and higher then we will see sunny all day warm Northeast weather.

If the index gos lower then we could be in for a cold summer.

Mark.R

 

 

.......................The Big Con Job.................................

An average human breathes out 1150 liters of carbon dioxide per person per day.
Now do this experiment.
BLOW INTO A PLASTIC BAG FILL IT WITH YOUR C02 AND TIE THE TOP SO IT CANT GET OUT.
NOW C02 THEY SAY WARMS THE AIR.
LEAVE THE BAG FOR 10 MINUTES COME BACK TO THE BAG AND SEE HOW WARM IT IS NOW....
I BET ITS AS WARM AS THE REST OF THE AIR IN THE ROOM.
THIS PROVES THAT C02 CANT WARM ANY THING.
TO BE ABE TO WARM THE REST OF THE ROOM THE C02 HAS TO STAY WARMER THAN THE AIR IN THE ROOM.
IS THE BAG STILL WARMER THAN THE ROOM AIR AFTER 10 MINUTES NO ITS NOT THATS WHY AGW IS THE BIGEST CON JOB KNOWN TO MANKIND.
Mark Russell.
 

 

3/08/13

NEWS IN THE PESS.
climate change = more extreme weather.
They say that by 2080 we will be 2c warmer than now.
WHO OF US ARE GOING TO BE HERE TO SEE IF THIS HAPPENS?.
YOU KNOW THAT OUR AIR TEMP HERE IN CHCH GOS UP 11C FROM WINTER TO SUMMER.
... AND THEY SAY 2C WARMER WILL BE BAD FOR US.
SUMMER IS THE BEST TIME OF THE YEAR WEATHER WISE.
so when the air temp gos up 11c from winter to summer we get nice weather so 2c is not going to much apart form the summer temp on avg going up from 22c to 24c nice.
And in winter from 5c to 7c very nice.

 

Magic gas discovery
Viv Forbes| January 28, 2013

It has been discovered that Australian coal has a magical property – it is one of a small group of coals which produce an invisible gas with supernatural properties.

This magic gas, carbon dioxide, first became famous for its claimed ability to warm the whole world, thus removing the threat of a new ice age. The British academic who reported this... magic power claimed that winter snow would become “a very rare and exciting event.”

Then an Australian guru predicted that just a tiny addition of magic gas to the atmosphere would abolish floods, and billions of dollars were spent constructing water desalination plants to combat his forecast of never-ending droughts.

Then after massive snows in Britain and huge floods in Australia, it was widely reported that magic gas could produce both heatwaves and snowstorms, floods and droughts and even bush fires, cyclones and tornadoes, depending on the way the political winds were blowing in that country.

Strangely, only a few countries are able to produce “magic” gas. A special exclusive club called the Kyoto Club was formed for these lucky countries. Membership fees are stratospheric, but members are rewarded with invitations to lavish UN conventions at top tourist destinations. However, many founding members have allowed their membership to lapse, leaving only the European Union, Australia and New Zealand as fully paid up members.

Coals burnt in Russia, India, China, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Korea, Japan, Canada and USA produce carbon dioxide but their gas apparently lacks the magic climate-altering properties of Australian magic gas. Amazingly, these properties are lost if Australian coal is burnt overseas – once loaded on a ship the magic disappears.

There are a few unpatriotic Australians who think the whole magic gas thing is a big con and just an excuse for a new tax. Worried that the world may become sceptical of the magic gas story, CSIRO has been charged with re-educating these dangerous and deluded sceptics. Vast sums are also being spent by academics to invent more climate-bending properties for carbon dioxide, and regular dramatic announcements are expected on the ABC and the BBC.

22/07/13

The way avg air temps are work out is don't done right.
 The way it should be done is that the avg air temp should be based on where the wind is coming from IE the avg temp for a Northwest wind in July is 17c.
 Now if we had a month of Northwest winds (which does not happen) and the avg temp for the month of Northwest work out to be 17c (day time temps) then that would be a normal July.

 Like this month is going to be warmer than normal but only because we had more Northwest winds days than normal and less Northeast days than normal.

 19/07/13
I also record a solar heat index.
 July so far is the warmest for a July by 2 points.(25.5)
 Last warmest Solar heat index for July was in 2011 with a reading of 24.3 points.
 This is what we would expect at Solar Max.
 When the last Solar min in July we had a reading of 19.5 points.
 This extra heat from the sun is making July 2013 a warm one.
 We are as of today 1c warmer than normal for July 2013.
 So as I said over the last 4 months August could be our coldest month for this year.

 When they say Christchurch will only go down to 8c.
 That 8c is only for the airport where all chch temps for NIWA are taken.
 It dose not mean that Bishopdale will get a low of 8c or Beckenham, Summer and so on.
 Air temp can be different even 1 km away from the airport.
 Also to use the airport as the site for all off Christchurch is not right as 95% of Christchurch is as far as 15km to the east and gets different winds at times.
 IE there can be a hot Northwest at the airport and a cool Northeast wind say in Beckenham.

 CANTERBURYS PAST GREAT SNOWSTORMS .Part one


 It was 1895 which took the honours as the most severe winter.
Winter came on strong in April that year
with heavy snow.
Followed by blizzards in May,June and July.

CANTERBURYS PAST GREAT SNOWSTORMS .Part TWO

The year 1903 was the next bad one.
Next to 1895 it was the worst on record with considerable snow and bitterly cold tempertures -20f at burkes pass on the Fahrenheit scale.
But the old man at the bar was not thinking back that far he was thinking of 1939 when snow fell practically all over New Zealand .
It started on July 5th and newspaper reports ...noted heavy snow throughout Dannevirke.
On July 6th there were 5ft drifts in Otago and on the 8th there even light snow on the streets of Auckland.
By the next day snow was reported from Ruapukapuka ,130 miles north of Whangarei,south to Invercargill.
And it kept right on snowing.
By July 17th there was heavy snow in Hawkes Bay, Wellington, Hamilton and Gisborne.
While Nelson reported a fall of 8inc throughout the province with telephone and telegraph lines down everywhere.
North Canterbury had heavy snowfalls on the plains and especially on the porthills.
That same day Asburton recorded 8inc and there was a fall of 10inc in Southland.
The next day was more of the same.
Snow in Wellington and up to 7inc in Canterbury.
But it was just getting started .
On July 25th there was snow from Wanganui to Southland.
Snow fell in Canterbury from the coast to the ranges.
There was a 7inc fall in Dunedin and heavy stock losses in Southland.
On July 30 Marlborough was hit with hail and 12inc of snow.Hail and sleet ravaged Ashburton.
There was a 12inc fall in Methven.
Canterbury meanwhile was vainly trying to dig its way out.
There was 3inc on the ground throughout Christchurch and drifts to 15feet in outer areas.
At the same time snow was falling in Northland the first time in living memory .
In Auckland Palmerston north Manawatu, Gisborne ( where water froze and burst water pipes).
Wellington and Opotiki, Queenstown was isolated for days.
The great snowstorm of 1939 came to an end and the next and succeeding few years were decidedly mild by comparison.
UNTILL WE ARRIVED AT FRIDAY JULY 13 1945.

copied from The star paper August 11 1973.
 
CANTERBURYS PAST GREAT SNOWSTORMS. Part three

 Friday July 13 1945.
 The day began with a clear, clam dawn.
 It will be a beautiful day." people were saying.
 The a Northwest wind began to blow and blow and blow .
 It increased in intensity until it had reached full gale force and gust as high as 90km/h were recorded at Wigram.
 Then as suddenly as they had started the wind began to decrease in force.
 By late afternoon it had dropped to a light Northwest breeze.
 The oddest part of the day was that, during the gale, the skies had remained clear and the temperatures were mild.
 Mr Brown in the best meteorological tradition recorded what happen next.
 " By about 4pm the wind had backed to a moderate West-southwest and cloud had increased considerably
 no front had passed.
 "From 4.30pm the wind freshened again and veered.
 Between 6pm and 7pm a strong wind from the West=Northwest was blowing .
 At 7.15pm the wind decreased and backed to a moderate Southwest breeze.
 The front having passed.
 "By now the sky was completely overcast but no precipitation had fallen.
 Rain began to fall at 9.30pm and for a short period at about 11pm.
 It was fairly heavy and falling from a sheet of nimbostratus cloud.
 "Shortly after 12.30am on Saturday July 14 the rain turned to heavy snow which fell continuously for six hours and a half.
 "The flakes were numerous and unusually large, some observers estimating them to be the size of cigarette papers".

 copied from The star paper August 11 1973.

 

 Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
By Charles Onians
Monday 20 March 2000


Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.
 

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.
 
The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.
 
Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.
 
However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".
 
"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.
 
The effects of snow-free winter in Britain are already becoming apparent. This year, for the first time ever, Hamleys, Britain's biggest toyshop, had no sledges on display in its Regent Street store. "It was a bit of a first," a spokesperson said.
 
Fen skating, once a popular sport on the fields of East Anglia, now takes place on indoor artificial rinks. Malcolm Robinson, of the Fenland Indoor Speed Skating Club in Peterborough, says they have not skated outside since 1997. "As a boy, I can remember being on ice most winters. Now it's few and far between," he said.
 
Michael Jeacock, a Cambridgeshire local historian, added that a generation was growing up "without experiencing one of the greatest joys and privileges of living in this part of the world - open-air skating".
 
Warmer winters have significant environmental and economic implications, and a wide range of research indicates that pests and plant diseases, usually killed back by sharp frosts, are likely to flourish. But very little research has been done on the cultural implications of climate change - into the possibility, for example, that our notion of Christmas might have to shift.
 
Professor Jarich Oosten, an anthropologist at the University of Leiden in the Netherlands, says that even if we no longer see snow, it will remain culturally important.
 
"We don't really have wolves in Europe any more, but they are still an important part of our culture and everyone knows what they look like," he said.
 
David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.
 
Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. "We're really going to get caught out. Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time," he said.
 
The chances are certainly now stacked against the sortof heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters, such as Sisley, and the 19th century poet laureate Robert Bridges, who wrote in "London Snow" of it, "stealthily and perpetually settling and loosely lying".

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html

http://web.archive.org/web/20100209052939/http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html


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